In the last 12 months, we’ve had 66 sales in Las Flores and 38 of those sales have been in some form of distress (either short sales or foreclosed homes). That means that about 58% of our closed sales were distressed, which can certainly have a negative impact on values. As of today, nearly 45% of our current active listings are in some form of distress.
You Are Not Alone
For those struggling with the tough questions of what to do, these can be dark days. Personally, I’m in a family filled with people in real estate – commercial construction and development, residential construction, and of course residential sales. No one has been protected from the economic impact of this, so it’s important to know that you really aren’t alone in facing tough decisions.
When Will Home Values Go Back Up?
For many of you, I see you at Starbucks, at the school, or at the grocery store, and the question is often the same: “When will the market return?” In a recent post I described some of the reality we are facing; essentially, we are just returning to the levels we would have seen had we not experienced a real estate bubble at all. And unfortunately, we are also facing one of the great economic downturns in our nation’s history. The answer: it’s gonna be a while.
It’s been a wild ride in Las Flores over the last several years and there is no doubt we’ve felt the pinch of declining prices and distressed circumstances in our real estate market. Recently for OC Real Estate Voice, I ran the numbers for individual cities within Orange County to see how they were faring…markets within the market. If you are curious as to how Las Flores compares, check it out. Suffice it to say, we aren’t the best (that would be Irvine), and we aren’t the worst (that would be Talega or Covenant Hills).
Latest Las Flores Market Trends
Here are the numbers from the current listings, pending sales, and closings from the last 30 days.
In analyzing the closing numbers for Las Flores in the month of July, there are some things that are interesting to note. It’s interesting to explore what properties are moving, and how long they take to sell. Whether or not a home is bank owned, an equity seller, or a short sale will definitely impact the time on market.
July Closings for Las Flores
There were 6 closings in the month of July in Las Flores and 50% of them were bank owned properties. Clearly, there is a significant demand for those homes and the average time on market was only 11 days!
Two of the six were short sales. These properties can also be seen as ‘a good deal’ in a buyer’s mind and yet, they require patience and fair amount of uncertainty in the buying process. The average days on market for those homes was 111 days (98 and 123 for each).
There was only 1 equity seller to close in the month of July, and it was also the highest closed sale at $620,000 (although not the highest in terms of price per square foot).
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Good News for the Equity Seller
If you are a homeowner considering selling, and you are still in a equity position (you owe less than your home is worth), there is a bright spot in the numbers. Buyers face a real challenge in seeking out bank owned homes – there simply aren’t many on the market. As of today, only 1 out of 20 is a bank owned home.
Buyers also struggle with the time frame and some of the uncertainties that are inherent in a short sale. (I did a post several months ago on OC Real Estate Voice on the challenges of a short sale that might be worth checking out.)
Given those conditions, some buyers would love to buy a home in an equity position with one large caveat; it has to be priced to reflect the current market conditions. The good news is that sellers are responding by pricing their home to attract buyers and those buyers are responding. Currently, out of the 19 properties in escrow, 6 of them are equity sellers.
If you have questions about the market or how these numbers impact your decision making process, I’m happy to help – with no obligation.
The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, including but not limited to square footages and lot sizes, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be personally verified through personal inspection by and/or with the appropriate professionals.
We’ve certainly seen prices come down in the last few years in Las Flores, but over the last couple years, what do those numbers really look like?
I pulled all closed sales from the period of July 1, 2008 to July 1, 2009, as well as the last year thru July 1, 2010.
Number of sales are up by 10% – possibly as a result of the Homebuyer Tax Credit. It will be interesting to watch the impact on demand in the months ahead.
I’m also interested in the significant improvement in the Sales Price as it compares to the Original List price. I have only anecdotal evidence on this matter, but it certainly seems as though this was the year that sellers seemed to understand the magnitude of the housing market. There certainly seems to be less homeowners under any illusion about the value of their home. People seem to be much more realistic when they enter the marketplace. This increase in demand may also have had an impact on this improvement.
Days on the market is, and will continue to be a very fuzzy number. Given the large number of short sales and the lengthy process that is required in that type of sale.
We’ve all been curious to see how the end of the Housing Tax Credit would impact our local market. In some places we certainly have seen a slowing of demand. Many serious buyers expedited their plans to fall into the window for the tax credit which has created a gap in the summer demand that we usually see this time of year. I think it’s premature to weigh in on the impact on Las Flores, but as of now, not too much has changed from the last report.
Disclosure – these numbers may be a bit dry and boring, but I think they are good to be aware of. I’m not this boring in real life
It was interesting examining the numbers this time. The equity sellers that may have been waiting for the market to improve, may have decided to move anyway accepting that we won’t see price increases for a while.
In the 90 period from March 1st to May 31st, we’ve seen equity sellers in each price category. Short sales still make up a big portion of the under $500,000 market, and bank owned properties continue to be infrequent.
Equally interested in the fact that there are currently 10 active equity sellers on the market, and 10 short sales. One does need to be somewhat careful about viewing the active inventory as ‘equity’. The reality is that some are overpriced sellers, that may have to lower their price into short sale territory – but I still think it’s interesting to see more traditional sales hit the market. I really do think that some of that is evidence that sellers are accepting the current market conditions. It clearly won’t be a ‘V’ shaped recovering, but rather a long period of flat, or no growth.
Some recent posts from my Orange County blog, OC Estate Voice that might be of interest if you evaluating market conditions or are struggling with a distress situation are:
Short sales are still really a prevalent issue in Las Flores with nearly half of all Active listings, more than half of all properties In Escrow, and nearly half of all Sold listings short.
The most active price range is between $500,000 and $750,000. We still are still the over $750,000 market as very slow throughout Orange County due to the tight lending environment.
The best news – we’ve had 3 short sales successfully close escrow this month. There hasn’t been a successful short sale closing since the first week of July this year. Time will tell whether these 3 closings are merely the culmination of the long short sale process, or if we are beginning to see the emergence of the long promised improvement in the processing of these sales in the banking systems (which we keep hearing about).
Inventory is very low and is likely to remain low throughout the remainder of the year as we approach the holiday season.
If you have questions about the value of your Las Flores home, or about buying in Las Flores, don’t hesitate to reach out.
(949) 939-2514
linsey@ocrealestatevoice.com
Unfortunately, the short sales in Las Flores are abundant at all price points. Short sales comprise nearly half of all the inventory – 7 of 15 current active listings. The bulk of them (5) are in the $500 to $750 marketplace.
The one big failing in my video post is the lack of mention in the short sale closings – there are none in the last 30 days. It’s important to note because of the abundance of active homes and those in escrow that are short sales – in 30 days we haven’t had 1 short sale successfully close.
The pending, or ‘In Escrow’ inventory, are slightly skewed by the high number of short sales. Many of these properties have been in escrow for months, and some may ultimately foreclose. Out of the 17 in escrow – 11 of them are short.
So What is the Good News?
The good news is that there actually is good news. There are four big changes to note for Las Flores real estate conditions.
Active inventory is down. In March, there were 23 active listings and today we have only 15.
Pendings are up. In March, we had 9 pending, but today we have 17 in escrow.
Closings are up from 4 to 6 from that same 30 day period.
2 of the 4 closings in the last 30 days were over $750,000. In previous analysis, we had no movement at all in those price points.
So What Does This Mean If You Are Selling in Las Flores?
Note your price point. Under $600,000 seems to be moving nicely and there is significant demand for equity sellers – those that can sell without bank approvals. Just don’t think that it means you can expect a premium sales price. The ones that sell are the ones that are priced right. Even over $750,000 is moving for the first time in a while, but you must be priced to reflect market conditions.
So What Does This Mean If You Are Buying in Las Flores?
Prices have come down dramatically but available properties are tough to find. Be prepared to watch and wait carefully for the right fit. Speak to your agent about automatic notifications if you are focused on Las Flores – especially in the lower price points.
So What Does This Mean If I Am In A Short Sale Position?
If you need to sell and you owe more than your home is worth, develop a strategy that makes sense. Talk to someone you trust and someone that understands your circumstances and your needs. Don’t pay upfront. Be careful. There are NO guarantees in this area of the market. Every short sale is different and every bank is different. And, honestly every day it can change.
Questions?
If you have questions, I’m happy to help. There is no obligation and no pressure; we really do want to serve the homeowners and potential buyers in Las Flores. Let us know how we can best help you.
Las Flores continues to suffer some of the same conditions we are seeing in the overall South Orange County market – very little activity in the upper price points, a large number of short sales, and very low bank owned activity.
As of today, there are 23 homes on the market in Las Flores and 10 of them are short sales, and presently there are no bank owned homes active. Unfortunately, I’m fully expecting the foreclosures to increase in the next 30 to 120 days (refer to my post on OC Real Estate Voice) and subsequently bank owned listings to increase.
Ironically, even with the abundance of active short sale listings, there have been no short sales that have successfully closed in the prior 30 days. There are currently 5 short sales in escrow. These can be in escrow for as much as 6 months, so we can expect the number of short sale closings won’t be dramatic in the coming days. As a matter of fact, the MLS notes only 2 short sales have successfully closed year to date in Las Flores, the last one was 2/17.
The highest closed sale in the last 30 days is in the Avelino tract for $525,000. The higher price points (over $750,000) is particularly slow with 8 active listings, no recent sales, and nothing presently pending.
If you ever have questions about the Las Flores real estate market, these numbers, or conditions in Orange County, please consider me a resource. If you, or someone you know, is currently thinking of buying or selling in Las Flores, I always appreciate your recommendation.
To contact me, (949) 939-2514 or email me at linsey@ocrealestatevoice.com.
All information and statistics are from SoCalMLS and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
As March comes to an end, it’s time to do a quick recap of the active inventory on the market in Las Flores, as well as examining what has sold. Because the price point has a big impact on what is currently moving, I’ve broken it down by price point and distress sales.
Take note that while the bank inventory is currently at zero, it will come back. The moratorium on Notice of Defaults ended (which is the first step in the foreclosure process) and sadly, the NOD filings are back to previous levels. Stay tuned for more on that.
Please note: The closed sales are in the last 30 days.
If you ever have any questions about the numbers presented here or questions about the value of your own home in today’s market, don’t hesitate to ask. There’s never any pressure or obligation. That’s just not how we roll here.
Information based on SocalMLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Las Flores is not unlike many communities these days in Orange County. We are plagued by low demand and a good deal of short sale inventory. Short sales are when the encumbrances/loans against the property are higher than today’s market value plus costs of sale.
Currently we have 19 Active Listings in Las Flores. Of that inventory, we have no bank owned homes presently and 8 homes, or 42% of the inventory, are short sales. Consumers that have actively been looking understand the challenges today with short sales and unless they are very attractively priced, they generally shy away from them. Consequently the short sales are forced to price themselves very aggressively which has the unfortunate side effect of a downward pull on pricing in the neighborhood. The average Days on Market is 105 days for the active market.
Currently there are 6 homes in escrow – 2 bank owned homes and 4 traditional, equity sellers. The average days on market for the homes in escrow is 41 – which helps to illustrate the buyer demand today. They are focusing heavily on properties that they can close.
There were only 2 homes that closed escrow in the last 30 days in Las Flores. One was a bank owned home. The demand for this distress inventory in the under $500,000 range remains high all over Orange County. The bank owned home sold for 101.54% of original list price.
The other closed sale was a short sale that listed at the end of August last year. The sale price was 84.9% of the original list price.
As always, if you have questions about your individual situation, current values, or neighborhood trends, I am always here to help. If you are considering buying a home in Las Flores, please visit the Search For Homes page for all the Las Flores homes currently available and let me know if you have questions.
Provided By:
Linsey Planeta
Broker Owner
M Realty
License #01312577
(949) 939-2514
linsey@ocrealestatevoice.com
45% of Las Flores Homes for Sale are in Distress
